202504011627 - Goodhart’s Law


resource: https://x.com/startuparchive_/status/1906312971065668089?s=12

Defined

"when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."

Simplified Core Topics and Talking Points:

  1. Goodhart's Law: Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke highlights the principle that "when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." He explains that metrics lose their usefulness when they are optimized as goals, as this distorts the broader objectives of a complex business.

  2. Avoiding KPIs and OKRs: Shopify intentionally avoids rigid frameworks like KPIs and OKRs because no single metric can fully capture the complexities and tensions within a company. Instead, they adopt a balanced approach to decision-making.

  3. Data-Informed, Not Data-Driven: Shopify values data and has invested heavily in analytics systems but avoids over-reliance on quantifiable metrics. They focus on unquantifiable elements like taste, quality, passion, and craftsmanship, which Tobi believes account for 80% of a product's true value.

  4. Human Judgment Over Metrics: Shopify compares its approach to a Pilot using a cockpit—metrics serve as support tools, but decisions are ultimately made by humans. This allows the company to address both quantifiable and qualitative aspects effectively.

  5. Criticism of Quantifiable Optimization: Tobi critiques the tendency to prioritize highly quantifiable metrics for immediate gratification, arguing that this leaves much of a product's value unaddressed. He advocates for embracing intangible qualities that drive deep satisfaction and long-term success.

Citations:
[1] https://www.theacpgroup.com/blog/Understanding Goodhart’s Law of Metrics
[2] https://www.splunk.com/en_us/blog/learn/goodharts-law.html
[3] https://www.metridev.com/metrics/goodharts-law-leveraging-metrics-for-effective-decision-making/
[4] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/basics-goodharts-law-james-o-sullivan
[5] https://deviq.com/laws/goodharts-law/
[6] https://builtin.com/data-science/goodharts-law
[7] https://commoncog.com/goodharts-law-not-useful/
[8] https://www.holistics.io/blog/four-types-goodharts-law/
[9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart's_law


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